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Prepare yourself for bear markets, sunshine

Despite what you heard from the McCain campaign, the markets are fucked up. The only sure thing that we can say at the moment is that there is a lot of volatility.

Now, while that may be good for the business of derivatives lawyers and their financial institution clients, it is almost certainly not good news for you, dear reader. At a high level of abstraction it means that there are going to be fewer jobs, everyday things are going to cost you more money, luxury things are going to move out of your reach, it’s going to be more expensive for you to borrow money (if you are able to get any money at all out of the tightened sphincter of the credit markets), and so on and so forth. As the poet said, it’s a big shit sandwich and we’re all going to have to take a bite.

What can you expect to see? Well, only a fool would offer sure predictions, but it’s better than even odds that you will be paying more, probably a lot more, for a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk. The dollar will continue its craptastic slide towards the Hungarian Forint and the Mexican Peso, meaning that, unless you can stomach paying $12 for a croissant, you won’t be traveling to Europe anytime in the near future. Your medical bills will consume a larger and larger percentage of your take-home pay. If you or anyone you know or care about is on a fixed income (i.e. living on Social Security and / or a pension), you will be hearing a lot more about how difficult it is to make ends meet. And, of course, you can expect politicians to make empty gestures and hollow speeches, filled with intellectual flotsam and jetsam about how we ought to be doing (or are doing, depending on whether Obama gets elected) this that or the other picking-around-the-edges-window-dressing program to make things a might easier on folks.

In other words, put your head down and ride out the storm. Hope that it will be a squall, but be ready for a force five fucking hurricane, because we are long past due and fresh out of bubbles to break the fall.

A series of questions I wish someone would ask John McCain, Part II

1.  Why do you think that Crocs is an example of successful American entrepreneurial enterprise?

2.  How do you explain your continued insistence that we could have won the Vietnam war?  Did the United States make a mistake by entering that conflict?  Was it a mistake to withdraw?  Does your position on this issue have anything to do with the fact that your father was in command of the pacific theater during the conflict?

3.  How do you explain your flip-flop on torture?

4.  Why should anyone believe that you are still, if you were ever, a “maverick” given that you have also flip-flopped on hateful fundamentalist Christian groups (i.e. you have sought and accepted support from such groups in this election cycle)?

5.  Given the difficulty you have had managing your presidential campaign (with a staff of 300), why should we believe that you will be able to manage an administration (with a staff of tens of thousands)?

Handguns in your home

This is Supreme Court decision season. I don’t generally intend to write quite so much about Supreme Court decisions, but I am a lawyer, and I am interested in Constitutional law, so what is one to do? It is what it is, as they say, even though it may not be interesting to many of you, dear readers.

Anyhoo, as you may have heard, last week the Supreme Court just handed down its first substantive decision on the Second Amendment and individual rights related to firearms in eighty or so years. The Court, divided 5-4, held in District of Columbia v. Heller that DC’s extremely stringent anti-handgun law is unconstitutional to the extent that it creates a ban even on having a handgun for home defense.

This may surprise you, since I generally come off as a rabid liberal who has drunk the kool-aid, but I think the outcome is quite reasonable. I see no reason why an average person should not be allowed to own and keep a handgun in his or her home for home defense. The Court’s holding was very clearly circumscribed to address just this narrow issue—taking pains to make it clear that this was not meant to be a radical overturning of all gun control laws.

I certainly agree with the part of Justice Stevens’s dissent, however, that points out that it is patently absurd to cram a constitutionally protected, originalist right to possess a handgun in one’s home for home defense into the Second Amendment. It absolutely strains credulity that this is what the Framers had in mind. The Court’s holding, written by Justice Scalia—and this explains the originalist framework of the holding, of course, since Scalia doesn’t have the balls to say something like “we think there ought to be a constitutionally-protected right to this so we are going to read it into the Constitution;” instead Scalia cowers typically behind an intellectually bankrupt argument that this is what the Framers meant in the four corners of the text—would have been much better if it had been honest about what it was does.

What it does is create a new class of constitutionally-protected individual rights with respect to firearms, where none have existed before. But, so fucking what? Yes, Scalia is an unscrupulous hypocrite and a charlatan. We knew this already. We’ve been creating new constitutional rights for decades and decades. Is this one really so bad? Law abiding people with no history of mental illness can have a handgun under their pillows. Big deal. Whatever makes them happy, so long as they don’t bring their hand-cannons outside and there is some mechanism to ensure that other people in their dwellings are aware of and, ideally, consent to having guns about. It’s no skin off my nose.

If a liberal approach to government is meant to be about leaving people alone to make choices for themselves in the absence of compelling public interests to the contrary, I fail to see how this holding is not part of such an approach.

The depravity of the Bush administration never ceases to amaze me

It’s no big news that the Department of Justice has become politicized under the Bush administration’s stewardship.  But the news that DOJ’s honors program—which is, in essence, an internship program for top law students interested in government service—has been affected by this politicization represents a new low. 

Past administrations have pretty much uniformly respected as sacrosanct the apolitical status of career positions at DOJ.  The leadership of DOJ, of course and appropriately, is political and is meant to reflect the particular political viewpoints of whatever administration is at the time running the executive branch.  But at the practical, enforcement level, the DOJ is tasked with just that: law enforcement.  A lawyer’s politics should, ideally, have nothing to do with enforcing the law.  The law is the law, whether read by Republicans or Democrats.  At the edges, where the law is unclear or facts uncertain, there is some room for political considerations.  But, in the cold light of non-partisan day, most cases and controversies handled by DOJ do not require political judgment.  They require fidelity to and respect for the law. 

Clearly this administration has always had “other priorities” with respect to the law.  It has generally evinced contempt for the rule of law (e.g.s: Bush’s “signing statements,” the so-called theory of the “unitary executive,” Guantanamo, the neutered Environmental Protection Agency, etc., etc., ad astra, ad infinitum).  The politicization of career attorneys at DOJ is shameful enough; the politicization of legal interns is just truly beyond the pale. 

Again, it is just further evidence of what we already knew: this administration is an abomination and a desecration.  It is an attack against the rule of law in the United States of America.  It is repulsive and repugnant.  It is a disgrace. 

I can’t wait for January 20, 2009.  And I hope that the Democratic Congress has the intestinal fortitude to take this administration to task in the new year.  I want them to put George W. Bush’s proverbial nuts in a legal vice and squash them into oblivion. 

Why, as a matter of first impression, this Bear Stearns hedge fund thing is bullshit

So, as you may have heard, the top managers of a couple of Bear Stearns (peace be upon it) hedge funds were arrested on Thursday by federal authorities on charges of securities, mail and wire fraud. The crux of the allegations are that while the managers were privately voicing concerns over the hedge funds they managed, which seem to have been deeply invested in securities linked ultimately to residential mortgages, they presented a sunny picture to their investors. There is also evidence that one of the managers simultaneously reduced his own position in one of the funds by about $2M (from $6M). There is also some reason to believe that the $2M was simply moved from one fund to the other, though this remains to be substantiated.

I am not intimately familiar with the structure of these particular hedge funds (and if I were, I wouldn’t be telling you about it—I keep my clients’ confidences, dear readers), but most hedge funds have substantial limitations on liquidity—i.e. the ability of investors to withdraw their money. Unlike a publicly traded stock or futures contract traded on an exchange, an investor cannot simply sell off his or her position in a hedge fund on any given day. Rather, most hedge funds only allow redemptions of fund interests on a quarterly basis with a significant notice period, typically 60 to 90 days. This means that if an investor wants to get out of the fund, he or she must submit a notice to the fund 60 or 90 days in advance of a quarter end (i.e. once every three months). Generally, the fund then has some time to make the payment to the investor—30 days after quarter end is typical. An investor generally also can’t sell his or her position to a third party because the hedge funds rely on very technical and stringent restrictions on sales of interests in the given fund (so that the interests are only ever in the hands of sophisticated investors) to qualify for exemptions from various securities laws.

The hedge funds are set up this way for practical reasons. The investment strategies of the funds are generally complicated, and often involve investments in illiquid assets or complicated (and generally also illiquid) derivative instruments—”over-the-counter” swaps, and the like—on a leveraged basis (meaning that, say, for every $1 an investor puts in, the fund goes out and gets exposure to $10 worth of investments). If an investor wants to redeem some or all of his or her position in the hedge fund, the hedge fund has to go out and liquidate some of these illiquid investments in order to have the cash to pay out to the investor. In addition, the market value of a lot of the hedge funds’ investments are not easily quantifiable, so hedge funds will typically have a “hold back” or “claw back” provision so that, because the fund managers won’t know the exact value of the fund’s portfolio of investments until the completion of a year end audit, final redemptions out of the fund are not complete until the audit is finished. This means that an investor getting out of a fund may not get all of his or her money until six or seven months after the end of the fiscal year in which he or she requested total redemption (or, in the case of a “claw back” structure, he or she may be obliged to give some of his or her initial redemption back to the fund if after the audit it is determined that the fund paid out too much).

All of this is, of course, disclosed to investors in hedge funds before they make the decision to invest. And, what’s more, because the hedge funds are not public offerings of securities and are very complicated and risky investments (all of which also, of course, is disclosed to investors before they invest), only sophisticated investors are permitted to invest in hedge funds, for the most part. This was certainly the case with respect to the two Bear hedge funds currently the subject of all of this fuss and muss. I won’t bore you with the securities law definition of who is a “sophisticated” investor—suffice it to say that the investors in these funds are generally loaded.

The illiquidity of the investments in the hedge funds themselves and the illiquidity of the investments that the funds in turn made with the investors’ money creates a lot of problems for managers when there are problems with the funds. Primarily, if investors get spooked and stampede for the exit, the fund will be forced to liquidate investments that may be hard to value, and may wind up taking huge losses as a result of the difficulty in valuation and illiquidity of the positions of the fund itself. This problem was, of course, compounded in this case by the start of the “credit crisis.”

So, these particular Bear managers were put in a very, very difficult position. The investments of the funds were in trouble, were already pretty illiquid, and became almost impossible to value and liquidate once the troubles in the credit market (or, alternatively, the “sub-prime crisis”) hit. This problem would have been compounded by investors suddenly redeeming en masse, because the fund would then have been obliged to attempt to liquidate most of these messed up assets at the worst possible moment, further driving down their value. If the Bear managers had signaled somehow to the skittish investors that they should be getting out, it is likely that the investors would still have lost every single penny of their investments (which was the ultimate outcome).

Their only reasonable choice, and probably the choice that was totally consistent with their fiduciary duties to their investors, was to urge calm and try to prevent a “run on the fund,” in essence. That’s what the managers did.

Hence, this case, so far as I can tell at the moment, is bullshit.

A Series of Questions I Wish Someone Would Ask John McCain, Part I

1. If you are elected president, do you intend to run for a second term in 2012?

2. When was the last time you had a normal human interaction with another person? I mean, when was the last time you bought your own milk, or struck up a random conversation with a stranger who had no idea who you are, or filled up your own gas tank, or did some other common, everyday activity that normal Americans do for themselves all the time? Has it been more than a decade?

3. How do you reconcile your original opposition to the Bush tax cuts with your current proposal for making those cuts permanent and extending further tax cuts to the wealthiest 1% of taxpayers? Do you believe that Bush’s economic policies have been beneficial to the U.S. economy?

4. How can we pay for those tax cuts and generally restore fiscal responsibility to the federal government by reducing “earmarks” that account for less than one-half of one percent of federal spending?

5. Is this the type of foreign policy rhetoric and position that is the result of your superior experience in such matters?